Sentiment - Buy, Position - Held, Investment Philosophy - Long-term conservative / realistic optimism.Just want to ensure we compare apple to apple when reading the next 4C, I'd like to remind us the last two quarters' performance by lines of business. The below table is my understanding which might be subject to mis-interpretation, so happy to be corrected.
FY20-21
AUD'm# Pairs of Max Sold Revenue from Existing Products (Presumably Mainly Max) ROAS Revenue from HP Total Revenue 1 Q1 2,111.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 3.5 2 Q2 3,696.0 1.4 2.1 2.0 3.4 3 1H 5,807.0 3.2 3.7 6.9
Though $3.7m from HP is not completely non-recurring in nature because the collaboration did materialise into a commercial contract, it was still an once-off engineering fee. Hence, it shouldn't be mixed up with the existing business which is currently primarily Max sales.
In 3Q20 4C, Proprietary Product Revenue should be compared with $1.8 and $1.4m. 1Q20 4C did note that they shipped 6,595 units (65% Max and 35% Other - i.e. ~4,286 Max shipped), including sale made in the quarter and clearance of backlog. That would have explained the "disconnection" between # pairs Max sold and Revenue from Existing Products in the first two quarters. We should keep in mind that though Max is now the main proprietary product, Boost hasn't been discontinued yet (at least due to NHS contract); hence, Boost would still be in the mix.
We might all agree that by itself, Max would not be able to help NUH to be cashflow positive in the next 12 months. But if2Q momentum was sustained in 3Q, couponed with the stepped up advertisement activity in the last 4-8 weeks, it would be unfair to think Max will not be a profitable business in the near future.
Regarding HP, we should not take $3.7m as a benchmark. The next time NUH reports Revenue from HP would be the starting point from this business line for trend / q-o-q comparison purpose. Many of us have shared prediction as to whether we would see any hint for order size (e.g. at least through cost of parts procurement); hence, I would not want to add mine into the mix. Instead I think we should focus on asking the probing questions in the webinar, form a more medium term vision and respect each other's different levels of belief (or disbelief) in HP story for the time being.
GLTA.
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