I warned people about a month back in " the bull case for nuix"...

I warned people about a month back in " the bull case for nuix" thread and was shut-down by people claiming I am a downramper (dotaking you were there with rockets and all..). I gave my perspective and detailed analysis from 25 years of enterprise software sales in large US tech vendors including the last 15 in cyber, fraud and insider risk software (not nuix). This dump was predictable and it's not surprising that "investors" keep falling for NXL smoke and mirrors.

THE #1 metric dictating software company valuations is ACV growth rate. NXL is on decline and will continue for the next 4-5 quarters. Why? As I mentioned in the previous thread (the bull case for nxl) -

1. Poor leadership
2. No (or very green) sales team - Nuix got rid of most of their sales stuff prior to IPO to make the balance sheet look great (one look at linkedin insights before the IPO was a dead giveaway) - avg sales cycle for this complex enterprise software is 2 yrs and avg rampup for sales rep is 9 months = dont expect major new sales or sales momentum/flywheel to occur for another 2 years.
3. No innovation - R&D was cut severely previously, again to save costs and make the balance sheet look good = Severe technical debt that need to be addressed at expense of innovation (meaning more risky software, costly to maintain bugs, less competitive)
4. Staff churn - motivation and moral extremely poor - 18% voluntary churn = the good people leave and nuix are left with dead wood. New staff join into the "fertile" culture.
5. Microsoft, Proofpoint and other serious competition will chew and churn NXL's ACV and clients. MSFT and their new insider risk and e-discovery offerings are built-in and have alot of investment. All MSFT need to do is sell an E5 license (which many orgs already do have) to replace/ delay nuix
6. High potential liability due to cyber risk - if NXL gets breached by the wrong mob its game over. NXL would be one of the highest targets for nation states who want access to the most sensitive data from some of the most sensitive organisations using nuix software. Very unlikely nuix focused on internal security with the ongoing cuts to r&d.

IMO - Cut your losses and move on. Could it go up short term? Yes, but next quarterly will be disappointing, and so would be the next. You would be better off putting your money and focus on other much better, positive software companies and leave NXL until they prove a turnaround. Talk is cheap.

p.s After I saw the relentless pumping and ramping I bought NXL at 2.46c knowing Its going to be ramped before ann and sold a day before ann.