re: Ann: O'Callaghans Mineral Resource - ... Hi Syd. Check...

re: Ann: O'Callaghans Mineral Resource - ... Hi Syd. Check whether you think the following rough numbers on 2nd hal year are correct. I'm ignoring copper - lets just assume that's the same as 1st half.

Dec presentation tells us gold to date:
Sept quarter 337,084oz at A$1143
Dec quarter 442,333oz at $1155
Multiply those and you get A$896M

Guideance of 1.81 - 1.91 confirmed so for 2nd half that would mean gold production of:
either 1,810,000 - (337,084 + 442,333) = 1,030,583oz
or 1,910,000 - (337,084 + 442,333) = 1,130,583oz

My estimate is that avg price since Dec is about A$1230. If this A$ price holds then 2nd half value of gold produced would be between A$1,267M (1230 x 1.03) and A$1,390M (1230 x 1.13). That would be an increase from 1st half of 41 - 55% and take them to between A$2,163 & A$2,287M gold sales for the year versus A$1,914M gold sales in 2008/09. That's nearly a 20% increase.

I'm justing playing with the numbers, not pretending to have any great insight but I guess folks should like this if it works out?

Check out today's prsentation p17 has senstivities for price changes. Basically gold price is offset by exchange rate so I'd guess that about A$1200 is a reasonable assumption for the next 4 months.