The export coal in South Africa is interesting. They were...

The export coal in South Africa is interesting. They were targeting about 90kt equity tonnes a month but only achieved a current run rate of equity tonnes of 60kt in October. That is180kt for the quarter instead of the 280kt in their 8 October forecast. I estimate they achieve a similar margin to the Blair Athol export coal of circa A$100+ a tonne (lower sales price but also lower cost). Assuming A$100/t margin then that is still another $18m EBITDA and would likely take the the equity accounted South African EBITDA over $20m for the December quarter (up from $11m in Q1) and total Q2 EBITDA of circa ~$90m. If they can figure out the logistics and get to 280kt a quarter then this would add ~$10m to EBITDA and move Q2 EBITDA towards A$100m. Stating the obvious, increasing the % of export coal out of South Africa operations would add a sizable amount to EBITDA going forward.