Absolutely!
I think January UMS will be around 5% lower than December, so not too bad and certainly not the large drop-off we've seen in past years. I don't think the 10% of UMS is sustainable in the medium term. While there may be a bit more of a ramp up to play out with convenience fees, I think reduced Sezzle premium revenue will more than offset, bringing down the revenue %. Given the strong profit in December, I do expect a small January profit. Although I'm not sure they will continue to do monthly updates now they are profitable.
I think there is a lot of operating leverage in the business. So if they can grow UMS modestly, profit will be multiples higher. Pay Anywhere will help grow the UMS and importantly, significantly increase the utility of their proposition to customers. I think their margins are higher from log term loans (where they assume no credit risk), Pay in Full (no credit risk) and Pay in 2 (lower credit risk). I'm keen to see how much UMS they can push through these. And also keen to see if they have any other new initiatives planned for this year.
Sezzle to me is starting to look like a modern credit card, with its annual fee, ability to be used anywhere, credit reporting, regulation and even physical cards. But the interest-free proposition and share of younger customers are key strengths. If Sezzle continues to grow, I can see them being taken out by a larger payments company. As you've noted, synergies would be massive as a buyer could extract significant transaction processing costs out of the expense base.
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