IMO you don’t hold any Z1P and are just here to pump your...

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chris1983

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23/11/20

11:23

Post #: 49064705
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Originally posted by StefanF: ↑

For anyone wondering how these results aren't generating +20% SP jumps here is my take:

Lack of margin certainty
BNPL is a margin business, first and foremost. Whatever margins BNPL make, whether that's Afterpay, ZipPay or Klarna has to cover operating expenses, funding costs, bad debt and provisioning. Since these companies make slim margins but on HUGE volumes, it means that a slight change in margins has a massive impact on revenue, good or bad.

So while volume is looking very good (large increases in merchants, customers etc) there is still uncertainty on how margins will be impacted by products that aren't very profitable, most notably the pay-anywhere and now also the Chrome extension. As was already discussed in previous threads there is risk of cannibalizations the existing 4% fees for 0.7% transaction fees. And even if we're not talking about cannibalization, we don't know what % of these new customers is resulting in 4% margins and which are resulting in 0.7% margins, the latter of which may be good for relationship building and data but it would barely cover the expenses listed in bold earlier.

As a comparison, Afterpay doesn't have this uncertainty as they only have 1 product and any customer that comes onboard will effectively add between 4-6% fees per transaction.

In my opinion, we will see a significant increase in the share price only when we get more certainty that these new products aren't putting pressures on Z1P's margins.

Margins is everything in this industry so this point should not be understated.

AIMO of course and keep in mind this is me trying to make sense of the SP reaction and while I could be wrong it's at least more informative than the usual "Great announcement so of course SP drops" or "Z1P getting played by the shorters".

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IMO you don’t hold any Z1P and are just here to pump your afterpay.

Z1P Price at posting: $6.24 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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