MEL 0.00% 0.4¢ metgasco ltd

Ann: Odin-2 Appraisal Well Successful, page-42

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  1. 840 Posts.
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    Fair enough @boysy1 so add another $1m to perforate complete and connect O-3 and MEL needs $4m.

    I can't see that amount coming in the form of fresh equity and I think if Glennon would have aready considered increasing their facilility. MEL needs a new lender. Any new lender coming into MEL would rank alongside Glennon so the real question for them is how secure their capital is if MEL fails.
    - On a reserves/resources basis MEL claims to be well undervalued at $0.19/GJ compared to market $1/GJ (are there comparable sales to back this up?)
    - Cashflow from O-2/3 is unknown but a reasonable result would provide enough cashflow to cover the loan

    So the first question is whether MEL, with Odin-3 connected, would be worth $6m in a forced sale? Clearly this is risky lending and the pricing would need to reflect that. Maybe in convertible note territory with a 15% interest rate?

    Fresh debt is far from certain. I do think though it is possible and remains MEL's best way forward as an independent company.

    Do you see any alternatives apart from falling into administration? Could VEN make a script offer or would Newhope mop VEN and MEL up? I think we are all white knuckling right now and I am open to suggestions!!
 
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