It's a hard one, as the outcome of the Cervantes drill will be...

It's a hard one, as the outcome of the Cervantes drill will be known before then (based on current timings) - and that may have a material affect on the share price. On paper the JV are aiming for a plateau rate of circa 12mmscfd, which is around 4.5 PJ. I can see them netting around $5-7 per GJ after costs (but contingent on pre payment and finance expenses)...so call that ~$24m gross, ~$6m net to MEL. Apply whatever ratio you like to it...but I can see that justifying circa $50m market cap, which is around 7cps prior to option conversion.