MNB (ASX) Ann: Offtake Agreement with Angola's Largest Food Aggregator

Originally posted by chuk: ↑

"There is quite a bit of bullchit on this thread, tired of seeing the same old charts pumping this stock, with the same NPV story."

That sounds a lot like it's directed at me seeing as I'm the one that talks about the project's NPV most often and I post plenty of charts.
So I think it's reasonable for me to respond.
You call it BS but what do you base that on?
I've been in the market for more than three decades and I believe that counts for something.
I started investing at around age 20 through managed funds. That seemed too boring for me so I started trying individual stocks with a few thousand dollars at a time. I relied on nothing more than broker recommendations and lost on every purchase. So I educated myself with a lot of reading. I then ignored broker recommendations and relied only on my own research. I started making money on just about everything I bought. With the success, I let the profits compound, switching from one stock to another after each reached my target or something better came along. After around ten years I got overconfident and started using leverage in order to reach to an earlier retirement. It almost worked. I had ample net wealth and my plan was to sell everything when I could retire. I even picked the top of the market before the GFC hit but I then worked out how much tax I would pay if I sold up. I decided to sell gradually instead. Big mistake just ahead of the GFC and with leverage. In two years of a once in a lifetime sized market crash and carrying leverage, I wiped out nearly 15 years of gains in under two years. BIG lesson learned. I had $100k left and managed to trade that for a living for around 5 years but I had to keep drawing the profits and couldn't compound for growth. One bad year later plus drawings for living expenses wiped out the account. I had to go back to work. Two years later I was able to buy a business and that allowed me to start saving and investing again.
In the last seven years, I have gone from around $20,000 to now being ready to very comfortably retire again. I did it in half the time and this time with NO leverage. I didn't do it by buying blue chips. I look for stocks that are strongly undervalued by the market and then waiting. Stocks just like Minbos. Sometimes I trade part holdings, sometimes I hold. I'm pretty sure I have enough experience to know what I'm talking about. I have no intention or need to ramp a stock to take advantage of others. I don't post BS.
Mnb is one of the most undervalued stocks I have come across in those 30 years. Experience has taught me to ignore claims that the market is aleays right. If it was, I would never have been able to make the returns that I have made in the time that I have made them.
Experience has also taught me from early on to do my own research and never rely on other people's research. Even if they are right, you can't know they are right unless you do your own research. What makes HC useful is reading things you may have missed but then you can check into those things yourself.
You say posts here are BS when based on NPV and charts. Why not use NPV? That's what the banks rely on when lending to these companies.
MNB's NPV to capex requirements are excellent and what gives confidence that the project will be funded.
Why not use charts? They are an exact representation of how the stock has behaved in response to past news and relative to the the market. That is very useful information and charts are great for identifying trends. Charts are less reliable in the short term on illiquid stocks like Mnb but are still reliable enough over the long term. MNB's long term chart is bullish. Short term it has held up better than many other small caps. Still with illiquid stocks like Minbos, nothing beats thorough research for the best investment returns.

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Incredible story chuk!

I personally like all your posts, but one thing about NPV I would exercise some caution: it is only realised when revenue is made as advised. Had the deal with Carrinho not made, it would have been a hard time to reach that NPV guidance. It seems the collaboration with IFDC is dead, now that Carrinho is the party responsible for aggregating demand from small farmers. It may not be that linear. What I don't like is the information asymmetry here: MNB apparently knows more about its position than us. Were it (or not) pushed into the corner when it comes to deals and timelines, we would be the last to know. At least that's been the case for the past 2 years, which I am not entirely comfortable to be honest. NPV isn't gonna the only thing that makes me sleep well with this investment.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	65847	4.9¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

65847

4.9¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.0¢	72486	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

5.0¢

72486

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	65847	0.049
2	362520	0.048
1	150000	0.045
1	3031	0.044
3	175000	0.040

No.

Vol.

Price($)

65847

0.049

362520

0.048

150000

0.045

3031

0.044

175000

0.040

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.050	72486	2
0.051	143969	1
0.052	95000	1
0.053	26000	2
0.054	119000	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.050

72486

0.051

143969

0.052

95000

0.053

26000

0.054

119000

(20min delay)
Last 5.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $44.12M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.1¢	5.1¢	5.0¢	$14.84K	294.0K

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