SHP 0.00% 1.2¢ south harz potash ltd

I feel like you're arguing a point that I'm not necessarily...

  1. 2,455 Posts.
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    I feel like you're arguing a point that I'm not necessarily trying to prove.

    If SHP progresses into DFS and is left with a huge permitted resource with world-class IRR but an empty purse, which is looking likely, then that's the point at which one of three things happens
    1. That purse remains wide open in perpetuity. Every investor gets upset. This is a possible outcome, as it is for every single spec stock. But this is where rewards can lie if other scenarios come to pass
    2. They somehow get funding - plenty of points mentioned previously about how $660m USD is not much money when you can pay it back in 3 years. Even if that goes to $1bn USD the IRR is still strong, and it's to restart a mining industry, not start with a pure green field. There are also many ways to fund, including off-takes, debt, CRs, etc
    3. Buyout - someone with deep pockets and a need buys up the project and fronts the capital. If an Allana happens to SHP, I end up 5 x. That's success in my book

    Is it risky? Yeah. But for me and many others it's a measured risk worth taking for the potential gains. Your points about comparison of this single project to other single projects are fair in part, but they're not in central europe ($100USD/tn shipping from Canada for example). Just because you're a net importer doesn't mean it's your ongoing strategy for the future.

    The other project you state is also in Etheopia, where Allana was. That's $40USD/tn shipping to Europe. That's an additional 10%+ of the potash basket price....

    There are many other strong points for the SHP project - not to mention the opportunity to scale up with the other projects they own and wash out the competitors
    Last edited by HeliosUK: 18/08/22
 
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