Ann: Oil Production from Mahato PSC, page-54

The prospective resource of ironbark was large (5 TFC gross) but it had a 25% chance of geological success and a small chance of development (5%).

“Although a large prospect, Ironbark has the cost and uncertainty associated with deepwater frontier exploration.
The Independent Adviser notes that SRK assesses a 5 per cent chance of commercial success.”
453-letter-to-shareholders (nzog.com)


5TFC gas is worth more than 60 million barrels of oil (probably around ten times more valuable?) but the oil in Mahato is already discovered (60 million barrels gross) and being developed.