PP I totally disagree with you.
Market expects way way less production, around 15.6mtpa (april figures) at the current SP at high costs forget 90% higher at 31MTpa (June runrate) or 124% more in Q1 (July-Sept) to 35MTpa
BULLISH FIGURES these are. Its a doubling in 3-5 months forget 12-18 months ! Month to Month shipping summary -
April 1.3 MT pm = 15.6MTpa run rate
May 1.9MT pm (done 1.7MT already) - UP a whopping 46% shipped m.o.m = 23MTpa run rate
June 2.3-2.6MT pm - UP a whopping 29% m.o.m = 30MTpa runrate
July-Sept 2.90MT pm - UP another 18% increase in monthly for Q1 = 35 MTpa run rate
this is an exponential increase.
The month on month ramp up of shipped IO is STUNNING, this is shipped so sales revenue generating.
the guided ratio of 29-31MTpa for June is a massive 90% increase on April
and they are predicting a 29% rise in shipments from May to June
the guidance drop is 0.7mt, a nothing burger, 8%
"For the month of May 2025 to date, Onslow Iron has shipped 1.7Mt. Over the last seven days, an average 74kt/day loaded on to ocean going vessels, with several days during May above 80kt, and 100kt loaded on a single day. It is expected that 1.9Mt will shipped during May (April 1.3Mt), equivalent to a run rate of 23Mtpa. The significant month-on-month increase highlights the acceleration of Onslow Iron’s ramp up, with the project remaining on schedule to achieve its nameplate capacity of 35Mtpa in Q1 FY26. MinRes anticipates shipping circa 2.3-2.6Mt in June, equivalent to 75-87kt/day and a run rate of 28-31Mtpa."
Market & SHORTS will not believe it, they are stuck in April low thinking.
The BULLS will show them the reality.
SHORTS cant read or write so of course they cant see this exponential ramp in production/shipping at all. A 90% increase in shipped IO April to June is MASSIVE if not STUNNING
What other IO producer can claim a 90% production/shipping increase at any IO project globally right now? NO ONE !
May see a higher open then short attackdown as usual then a 200c move tmrw.
Cant see 2300 breaking, its more likely 2500 can break.
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