LVT 0.00% 0.6¢ livetiles limited

The presentation is / was absolute sham - no clear answers. Im...

  1. 34 Posts.
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    The presentation is / was absolute sham - no clear answers. Im still baffled that anyone would not have their mind made up. There are no current shareholders that a delisting will benefit in my opinion and I believe you will be diluted away or have little to no liquidity. When Karl was asked about a valuation he just muttered about some hypotheticals and absolute nonsense. The fact is many private company valuations have fallen by 50%+ and that's for those that have scale like Canva etc , its just been delayed compared to listed companies.

    Its a fair point to say that businesses are often undervalued on the ASX, but its also just as accurate to say that with cheap money the last few years many private companies have been overvalued. Any capital coming through in this new world will come with far more strings attached (preference shares or non-dilutive ) which management will likely shift theirs into. If its about staff retention - the only way to retain staff in this environment will be to pay them more or issue more new shares (once again diluting existing holders), but this is the case for all tech companies and has nothing to do with it being listed/unlisted.

    If it comes out of a delisting in 2 years, (which might be very generous and unlikely) I would guess that current shareholders would have had their holdings significantly diluted, so if you needed 20c / $180m market cap (~3x ARR) to break even I don't think its a stretch to say you will need a much greater figure than even 30c ~$270m mcap etc. If ARR can't start to grow quickly there is no chance of getting 5x ARR etc. So you aren't getting your money back in the short term save for a miracle.

    LVT would have value to someone that has a business operating in an adjacent category and could benefit from their client base - for instances someone whose client is also a LVT client, but without ARR growth they aren't going to pay high multiples of ARR.

    But at the end of the day, they can just as easily update the market and tell them that they are going to change strategy, and that next few quarters are going to patchy (much as they have been ) as they chase large enterprise clients. Shareholders can then buy, sell or hold based on their confidence that management can deliver. The thing is they have already been doing this strategy for almost a year now and they have lost the smaller end, rationalised their product offering and ARR hasn't grown that much.

    At least if it stays listed investors will have transparency, and any of these suitors that they have alluded to will need to disclose their offer and get a bargain price that management claims is on offer.

    I still feel that remaining listed will offer shareholders the fastest way to an exit and likely at a much higher price than it is now, albeit likely far under your entry price.....

    At the end of the day management just need to align themselves with shareholders (eg take a reduced cash component of their pay) which will provide dual outcomes of showing that they are aligned with shareholders / their remuneration structure demonstrates good corporate governance & it will save them $1m~ on a year in cash .. Then clearly articulate that they are happy to let small end fall away at the expense of ARR short term ,but they also need to show that they have taken those costs out of the business.

    Not really sure the shareprice can fall any lower before someone makes an opportunistic bid and ends up with a controlling stake anyway.....

    Given there hasn't been a substantial shareholder notice trades so far I assume whomever was looking previously hasn't taken the opportunity to buy 10%+ of the company at sub 4c as they could have in the first few days of the announcement.

 
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