LVT 0.00% 0.6¢ livetiles limited

I think that over the same time period its worth what its worth...

  1. 34 Posts.
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    I think that over the same time period its worth what its worth - you just don't have the visibility. Its just that it can spend 2 years at 4-10-20c on the ASX and then all of a sudden someone comes along and says that $65-100m in ARR is worth 2x and now it worth $200m (~30c) if undiluted. It happened with Acconex for instance amount others but in the end it didn't matter as for those with long term / patient capital unlisted or listed made no difference as the price they paid is the price they paid. If someone buys a listed company then the cost to then take it private is negligible vs price paid so its not like they will pay $100m for it tomorrow because its listed. Im not sure where the logic on that one is given we are moving away from the last few years where VC would throw money into anything that moved and not ask questions. Also if they manage to raise $5m for instance for a 10% stake and all of a sudden its worth $50, (double its current EV approx) I think management will likely issue new shares rather than say hey does anyone want to sell 45m shares for $50m/900m = 5.5c~ ... ? If they are desperate for the $5m they wouldn't risk it, so its more likely they will get issued 100-125m shares at 4-5c or whatever and dilute existing shareholders.

    Management has not provided any evidence that they put anything but an afterthought into liquidity given it was mentioned at the outset,. it was only that after many emails we have engaged such and such who only provide this service for 5% and sophisticated investors as buyers etc ....

    What management have demonstrated in a round about way is that they are looking for an exit strategy and they just want to sell. Which leads me to believe they don't have the funding to grow this into what they think it can be and need fresh capital to continue to invest , which means heavy dilution.

    Right now they have the same chance and decent cash runway to meet objectives and given they have destroyed the share price they can also implement their strategy (even more rigidly by letting go of anything small that won't migrate to their off the shelf product) at the expense of ARR. If costs slide toward neutral or tangible increases in ARR from these little add ons materialise then the weather the market reacts now or in two years doesn't matter if you are invested in the business. So by taking it unlisted you have told us that you are happy to be patient with your capital.

    The other issue which is alarming with going unlisted is that they lose $4m in funding that they need... reading that now would result in an extra 11% share / dilution vs staying listed and accessing OneVue $4 facility that has years until its either paid or converted into shares at 20c, vs 4c raising now.

    Don't forget there is still the CYCL earnout, and if they want to invest in new product or buyout the remainder of the companies they have invested in they will also need to raise cash if they don't want to dilute further .. luckily they are small investments and they are already showing signs of revenue ...


 
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