As mentioned above, Armour Shareholders may find the following excerpts of interest. Source : The Australian, 10 January 2018 : LNG exports soar but local prices contained
East coast gas exports are at record levels as Queensland’s three big liquefied natural gas plants run hard to meet growing Chinese demand that has sent spot prices soaring and pushed east coast domestic gas prices higher.
Gladstone port statistics show LNG exports jumped 17 per cent from the previous month to 1.99 million tonnes. The move eclipsed the previous record of 1.75 million tonnes set the previous December.
The three plants built at Gladstone for a cost of $70 billion, which have rapidly tripled east coast gas demand, are now able to run at full capacity.
The plants have opened domestic markets to international prices, meaning contract prices have risen from $3 to $4 per gigajoule to $8 to $10 or more, spurring warnings of looming job cuts and increased power prices. Citi analysts said spot gas prices in Australia’s southeastern states averaged $7.40 per gigajoule in December, up 9 per cent from the previous month.
Spot LNG has more than doubled in the past six months as China has accelerated a shift from coal-fired power and heating to gas to tackle air pollution.
Asian spot prices are now at $US10.86 per million British thermal units, or $14.60 per gigajoule.
The increased LNG demand and spot price rise, combined with a hike in international oil prices that contract LNG sales are linked to, has sent Santos shares to a two-year high of $5.60, nearly doubling from $3 at the start of June.
Origin Energy, which operates the Australia Pacific LNG plant with ConocoPhillips, is also at a two-year high, having risen 40 per cent in the past three months to $9.75.
The surging LNG prices and Chinese demand, if contained, are refuting the argument that Australian businesses are paying more for wholesale gas than their Asian counterparts.
Not that this is good news for local users.
If the increase is long-term, it could spell the end of AGL Energy’s plans for a $250 million LNG import plant in Victoria to increase competition in the southern states by making imports uneconomic.
In August, AGL said it could import gas to Victoria at a price of between $8 and $10 per gigajoule.
This was when spot LNG prices were still below $US6, indicating any LNG that was imported to Victoria at current prices would cost well over $10 per gigajoule.
Still, at an investor briefing in early December, when prices had climbed to $US9, AGL said it was “reasonably confident” of the economics of the terminal, which would be built at Crib Point.
City said it did not expect surging Chinese demand to keep LNG markets tight for long.
“Policy-accelerated gas demand growth in China has occurred faster than the infrastructure and domestic gas supply can keep up, in turn placing greater reliance on China LNG imports,” Citi analysts said. “However, we expect China’s domestic gas markets will respond with increased production and storage, prior to Russian pipeline supply late 2019, mitigating the ongoing impact.”
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