I sort of understand the massive uranium opportunity but does anyone have a feel as to the potential royalty stream from Translucent which is noted to start in 2020?
In FY20 the minimum guaranteed royalty payment from IQE to SLX will be 400kUS$, then it will be a function of cREO-related IQE revenue. IQE are currently generating ~200mUS$ in annual revenue; so, if cREO were to contribute even just 10% of that in FY21, and SLX got paid 4% of that as royalties, we’d be talking about 4%*20m/0.715 = 1.12mA$ in FY21.
It needs to be taken into account, though, that cREO will find application in multi-billion-dollar markets where IQE are the current industry leader. In their most recent trading update (January 25th), IQE reiterated FY19 and long-term revenue CAGR guidance of 40%-60% for their photonics business; this is to say that, by the mid 2020s when Paducah is likely to start getting built, the annual royalty payments from IQE to SLX could already be in the region of 5-6mA$ pa.
Not a bad place to be in, I don't think?
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