Genetech is only one thing and certainly not the most valuable...

Genetech is only one thing and certainly not the most valuable one they are working on. I am only ascribing a 10-30% chance they are successful (based on past performance I'm sure you will agree I am being generous) and the SP doesn't seem to ascribe any chance - If we were seriously going to get a USD2-5m payment in the next 2 months then IMHO the MCAP should be double. Not that the payment is something to value itself but it would be an acknowledgment that the probability of receiving some or all of the remaining $USD140m would double or triple or whatever. None of that includes a royalty from an end product either.

Oncology is still the main game and iMYCs the key to not being dependant on OmoMyc - if it's proprietary then we don't need to share - again that doubles whatever value exists if successful. I am interested to hear where relationships with the OmoMyc guru's are at though. I had heard that PYC went from nobody's to somebody's in their eyes but it would be good to find out eventually how this has progressed.

If Genetech say yes then my current guess on value moves to 5-10c (but of course the SP prob only goes to 3-5c) but I suspect there is a ST downside to Genentech signing and that is the cash runway extends enough to take oncology further ie to extract the maximum LT value they are likely to keep pharma out of the oncology discussion for as much as a year - the later they come in the more they pay.

There is a bit of chatter in financial/bio circles that someone wants some PYC but I don't believe that the accumulation seen recently is an indication of this - $100k stake is all that is available on screen and if you buy it then it will set a cat among the pigeons in a stock as quiet as this. That's why I was curious at trasact1's timing - when an infrequent poster shows up in a forgotten stock like PYC and I hear financial chatter I get curious . . .

I've gone from being a sleepy watcher to more alert for the next few weeks - it's the kind of stock that will be at 5c in a fortnight with a bit of a nudge.