In the half yearly, the AISC only includes ONSITE admin.... that is 3.5 admin and 1.1 corporate... for 4.6 mill. Yet in the half year, they spent 9.3 mill. So, it appears that about 5 mill is Perth latte.
Also, the half yearly has 11.2 mill as net finance cost. And that is not listed in the AISC.
So, based on THEIR numbers, we need to flush down the toilet 16 mill not associated with AISC each half year.
At the low end of their guidance we will 'profit' 65k at $150 oz = 9.8 mill. So at their lower end of guidance they will make MINUS 6 mill min. At their high end 80k x $250 = 20 mill, therefore they 'make' 4 mill after paying for finance.
Now, it makes no sense to me how they have 11.2 mill in 'net' finance costs. They had 5 mill in the first half of 2014. I dont think, accounting wise, repayment of principle, is a finance 'cost'. But perhaps it is in PB Tricky speak.
That, then means outside for AISC we have, in 2nd half, likely 15 mill in finance cost. 10 mill repay then interest. Let me guess more like $3 mill interest, so let us go with $13 mill finance cost. And we must have the Perth lattes, so that is an embedded in stone $5 mill.
I personally would call this $8 mill 'fixed' costs. $5 mill PB lattes and $3 mill finance interest.
So, cash (pog 1150 with their AISC) will be between 10 mill and 20 mill.
Less 8 mill fixed costs, ... and they will 'make cash' between $2 and $12 mill.
Now they have debt to pay off. I hear from you guys they borrowed a couple mill to operate in the first half. Let us say they pay that off. And they need to pay off $10 mill of the secured debt. So they need to pay off $12 mill.
Now we have an operation, that will make cash of between MINUS 10 mill and NIL... based on THEIR NUMBERS.
And we have Pete saying: "We expect our cash reserves to increase significantly as a result of this anticipated strong second half."
I just need someone to explain this. On PETE'S best guidance, he will pocket $20 mill from the operation. Of that $20 mill he needs to pay $5 mill for latte, and 12 mill for debt repayment, and $3 mill for interest. The best case scenario, according to Pete's OWN numbers is his cash reserves will remain EXACTLY at their current low level. Yet he says
"We expect our cash reserves to increase significantly as a result of this anticipated strong second half."
Now, perhaps one can think BDR is a buy as they seem to have an ongoing operation that can JUST fund itself, and pay Pete's lattes, and repay debt ($20 mill a year).
You could argue making $20 mill a year is great on the base operations. You actually take home $40 mill a year and pay $20 mill to run the Perth parasites and $20 mill against debt. One could argue that once you have repaid the debt and fired the parasites... in a few years, you may have a gold company that is making $40 mill a year on base operations. Then you have a company that is worth at least 50 cents a share. (after you pay the debt and fire the parasites)
But, unfortunately, the parasites will make sure they get first dibs on the cash. The numbers prove what I have said for a while. BDR exists only to suppport the Perth based mongrels and their multi millions of salary. Until you get rid of the parasites you will have a 12 cent share forever. Get rid of them and you have a 50 cent share. Their own numbers show that.
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