I've got some slightly more conservative numbers although I'm still as bullish.
We have 4732 - 1896 - 496 (1st week of feb) - 500 (last week of feb) - 660 (first week of march). All this over 3 gives us the remaining 3 weeks which would have been circa 393.3 not great but not all that bad.
The thing that has thrown a spanner in the works for me is the Victory North is starts in the "June quarter". This vagueness is what made me pull my trading parcel from 1.3 and move to 1.2 (although perhaps I should have put at 1.1).
What we need to remember is that ore from a1 costs around 1g/t to transport. Assuming we have 60% from a1 40% from union, that would put the costs to move 25, 000t a quarter to the mill at $1.26 million.
If we do get 390 ounces a week for the next 13 weeks it should account to $8.6 million from union. With costs circa $6.7 million (this is just taking away the shipping costs from a1, it would likely be lower without having production there also). With our current cash position of lets say $1 million, (I'm assuming the 400k or so we saved not shipping ore the last 3 weeks was spent of the tailings dam) we should (in a very conservative case) have enough money to pay our loan.
I know things are tight, and there is some uncertainty about but I think everything will be ok. I'll continue to buy the dips as management have a proven track record and the T20 only seem to be buying more and more.
Any counter arguments/insights to my points above please share.
CTL Price at posting:
1.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
