Actually, I don’t think a strategic equity stake in the company...

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CEOChair

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29/03/24

15:03

Post #: 73118483
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Originally posted by godzilla888 ↑

Announcement check list- seems like it will be very delayed –a late May event? But should be comprehensive – with overall goal to define the area as a new & major hydrocarbon province (confirm initial commercial development plus regional potential). Totally speculative guesswork below but provides a framework of what to expect in a best-case scenario.

1. 2025 Deal targets

1. cash – for past costs etc > ka-ching!

2. drill carry – for 3 wells in 2024 – possible contribution for 2025 - 3 wells

3. Capex - carry phase 1 / possible carry phase 2?

4. Share placement @ premium?

5. Could structure deal at 25% equity for 2024 carry, ditto for 2025 option

2. 2024 Sign up rig for 6 slots over 2 years

1. big issue is performance- able to drill wells quickly

2. Even bigger issue is completion and testing without screw ups - long history

3. 2024 Preliminary drill program 3 wells

1. 2 appraisal and 1 exploration

2. Appraisal locations picked

3. RAF#2 Crestal along strike - safe for 2C boost

4. RAF#3 Second downdip to southwest

5. Plus test existing well #1

4. 2024 Exploration mapping done

1. Massive U2 = 2++ TCFE

2. 1 Exploration location drilled 2024

3. Seismic 2024 - possible

4. Acreage win announced

5. RAF wild cards tested by RAF#3

1. are there extra zones - above and below existing = much thicker reservoir?

2. possible flat spot(s) indicating deep gas/ water and or oil leg?

6. RAF Reserve estimates

1. Core zones (after RAF#2 & test RAF#1) 2P + 2C = 1 TCFE

2. After RAF#3:

3. - Add extra reservoir zones (2C) = + .5 TCFE - down dip

4. - Deep G/W (2C) add .5 TCFE

5. - Possible oil leg in well 2 (U2 ) speculative (needs to be thick to be productive (avoid coning) but if present goes forever as is outside closure)

6. So RAF total 2P&2C unrisked success case 2+ TCFE

7. RAF Commercial plans for above

1. Enough to support 330 mmcfd gas export project 20 years

2. Third party infrastructure funding for gas processing plant

3. Third party LNG exports plant

4. Funky green solar ccs etc

8. 2025 Preliminary program 2025 > drill three wells

1. RAF#4 producer

2. Exploration #1 appraisal

3. Exploration #2 new feature

2024 should have early resource update and booked reserves by YE.

2025 should have dual FID – phase 1 and later phase 2. Additional upside from exploration and 2H IPO.

Production not until 27/29.

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Actually, I don’t think a strategic equity stake in the company in return for a free carry on a single, specific project ie Rafa makes a whole lot of sense after I’ve trimmed a few hedges and had a swim and a cuppa and a hot cross bun or three. I think it’s far more likely to be a project specific farm-in - may well be 25% Rafa for 2024 appraisal/retest free carry with option to increase for follow-up exploration through to production. And agree a nice cash injection compensating for activity to date, maybe extra for Yulleroo UnCon or even Ungani Oil if desired.
I do, however believe there is a founding strategic partner stake to be had by anyone lucky and enlightened enough in 2H. And also in GeoVault, which would make most sense to be the Rafa farm-in partner, one and the same.

BRU Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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