Ann: Operations Update at Triple Crown , page-15

Maybe the seller has no confidence or can't do math very well. Seems to me this stock has good upside - after it is a speccie.

For my own purposes, I did an NPV analysis for just TC using $4, $5 & $6Mcf gas pricing and flow rates that had IP at 8, 6, 4Mmcfd

I tried to keep it very conservative (although I only used $2M as the well cost because I'm taking that cost up front on the 10 Year model which is not what would happen in reality). I've also fixed the price of gas for 10yrs, and I have used as a decline rate of 50% for first two years. So if IP flow is 8Mmcfd then end of Yr 1 it becomes 4Mmcfd and I used an average of the 2 (6Mmcfd) for year 1 production. Year 2 then starts at 4Mmcfd declines to 2Mmcfd so average for year 2 is 3Mmcfd and then for years 3-8 I used 1.5Mmcfd.

As usual the NPV models are unrisked so I discount by 80%, even though we know there is gas - it may not be commercial so there is still great risk that exists.

Proof of commercial flows suggests a risked value of 13-20cps for TC.

All IMO of course and I could easily be wrong.