The problem when trying to come up with an expectation is that when calculating the outcome on East Coast prices the numbers produced become enormous.
To put it simply
1 TCF = 1.06bn GJ, keep it simple call it 1bn
1 GJ as consumed on the East Coast goes for around $12 but has spiked as high as $28 this year.
So, 1 TCF is worth about $12bn once delivered to the consumer.
But there is upto 21 TCF so that makes 21 X $`12bn = $252bn.
But our gas is arguably still conceptual, we know its there, we know there is lots of it but we don't really know how much exactly.
So if SLB can come up with a more solid estimation by referencing input from nearby wells drilled by Santos then we should be able to place some sort of value on it.
Even if we came up with half the 21 TCF at this stage it would still be 10.5 X 12bn = $126bn.
Whats that worth in-situ?
Even at 1% of the retail price it is still north of $1bn ... against our market cap of $30mn.
So all I want to see in the report is a solid estimate on has in-situ from SLB as an independent contractor so the market can place an in-situ value on it.
I would be most obliged if someone who has greater gas experience than I could go over my numbers.
Also is 1% realistic for in-situ East Coast Gas reserves or should it be higher?
EB
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