Yeah, but the unconventional is in an even worse position and the POO will most likely be higher come next dry season. It's not like LNG prices etc aren't going to have their own issues in '17-'18 etc either. Remember also that we don't need to appraise and develop new oil finds for significant value to be unlocked any more than we need more than corporate activity on the Laurel for some value there to be unlocked. BRU went to $3.80 long before the first barrel was produced. I've stated multiple times over the years I don't really hang around for production. I only used it then as a metric for ST vs LT.
I'm all for them putting the kitchen sink into conventional drilling next year. I honestly don't see how they could direct 75% of their activity to unconventional. They've already drilled all the holes they're going to drill on their own in the current set up. After the testing has finished they're basically just going to be trying to farm out. I guess maybe they could do a horizontal drill utilizing the existing holes but I think they'd wait for a farm out to do that. They might test the two holes they didn't this year. I wouldn't expect anything more than that before a farm out. The holes are much deeper and more expensive.
Conventional drilling provides so much value to existing and future operations. Any further oil finds could reduce *current* per barrel operating costs and any deeper conventional gas finds would no doubt provide the backbone for unconventional infrastructure making the Laurel more economic. It makes so much sense to create a conventional footprint first that can generate near term revenue (and immediately a much higher SP to CR from).
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