It is a good point Vougie. Is there a risk that we are reading too much into Daves words? Possibly. But IMO no. I think what I am saying is that his words in that announcement has given me a more detailed understanding of why the play risks are stilled deemed as 50%. As we have progressed on the 2V journey, the speed and success of the drill, the insight from logging etc etc has given rise to a buoyancy that has conflated 'project 2V' success with 'Icewine play' success. We have all seen it on full display, and it is difficult not to be swept along by it. Dave has reminded us of the two key lingering uncertainties. There has been a lot of discussion here on the fraccability uncertainty, but less so on the GOR uncertainty. It was not an uncertainty that was on my radar prior to this month. I am seeking to better understand that uncertainty. It is becoming apparent to me that as an investor, I will need more than just a flow rate (and possibly a production profile) to assess ongoing risks. I will need to understand the impact of GOR on the potential prize size and on ongoing economics - to better inform my post 2V investment decisions.
After all, this is an investment.
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