Ann: Operations Update, page-477

The other factor too is that over the last 6-12 months Iran has been winding up its production as well after the sanctions were lifted, but they are now pretty close to full production, and there isn't expected to be much in the way of other increases in conventional production in the next year or two - production from Libya and Nigeria is going to fluctuate a bit depending on the civil war situation there, GOM production isn't going to improve much, some countries might see a slow down in production as it is marginal at best in some countries at current prices, and the majors aren't looking to put a lot of new offshore oil into production at the moment.

One advantage with conventional is that Capex and production can be scaled up and down relatively easily, whereas with offshore oil most of the Capex is spent before any production.