You are right
@Juno, not the end game for this well, and certsainly not for the longer term play....IMO its about the best real estate....location, location, location. It needs to be recognised that the unconventional results envelope of IW#1 and IW#2 are largely selected IMO by logisitical consideration rather than driven by significant geological data (other than, hey the HRZ underlies the whole area...anyplace is as good as the next???). The drill site is a great logistical choice, close to the TAP and the Dalton Hwy, hence the site/access costs of having a crack at drilling are relatively low.
My view is drilling from the IW#1 pad into the margin of Area Alpha (diagram below) was to derive added value from linking investigation of the unconventional potential to conventional resource estimation, and this really is a stretch.
View attachment 639939
It seems IMO that IW#2 current flow back results confirm that the well will have little to do with the conventional resource, as it might be expected (IMO - happy to stand corrected) that reservoir pressure would have some flow of hydrocarbons into the frac voids and some petroleum recovery would be in by now. The line from the ann of 26 June shed a ray of hope on this, but the hydrocarbon return seems to have evaporated on drilling out the plug between the upper and lower zones:
Trace hydrocarbons were encountered whilst flowing back the upper zone prior to drilling out the plug
It would also be instructive to know also what results were found during testing of drilling fluid returns while penetrating the upper and lower zones. IMO this would certainly have been done to check the presence of hydrocarbons in the source rocks. I assume that this came up trumps, or the stimulation would not have gone ahead.
Obviously, the upside if successful is massive, however the Franklin Bluffs location is obviously firmly on the 88e radar from a geological perspective, and we should be looking at IW#2 as a derisking operation, not a 100 bag boomer, hence DW's rider on today's ann:
Further analyses are required to determine the impact, if any, of the performance of the Icewine#2 well on the probability of success for the HRZ play at the Franklin Bluffs location and over the wider acreage position. - Ann 10/7/17
If you look at the ann from 13/1/17, it is apparent that the optimal conventional location is some distance from IW#2, and there was perhaps low probability of intersecting a favourable target. My simplistic take on the optimal location given a stratigraphic trap pinched out to west and north and hydrocarbon migration upward in the formation is annotated on the 88e diagram:
View attachment 639945
Note that these are my annotations only and should not be construed as accurate geological interpretation and or as being in any way associated with advice from 88e. DYOR.
While I will be over the moon if we see large volume hydrocarbon flows from IW#2, my view is that to demonstrate potential of the HRZ, both unconventional and convential need to be tested at optimal locations. I am not convinced that this has happended with only one drill pad thus far utilised across a massive play. At least two more wells are required in optimal locations for unconventional and conventional targets before I will be satisfied either way.
IMO there is a long way to go with the play, and a massive upside to be uncovered. Long termers are long on their holding and patience, but I note that there is a desire for an early takeover creeping in to the threads. Personally I am happy to load up at times of weakness and contribute to cash raises if the long game is really in play. You can't however knock short termers if the game is to drill two wells and sell out to the first comer.
It will take time and more wells to prove the potential. IW#2 is only the second hand played in the game.
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