With the well now shut in for a week it is interesting to speculate on what the return pressure curve will reveal. A normal curve will look like this, as the difference between the pore pressure and well pressure reduces, the rate of pressure increase will slow. At first the difference is greatest, we know this because the well was not flowing so can presume it to be at hydrostatic head pressure. We also know that pore pressure is at least 40% above hydrostatic, so the difference is greatest when the choke valve at the top of the well is initially shut. As the pressure difference drops, the rate of flow reduces and the rate of pressure increase slows, until it stops when the two pressures are equal.
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If there is a curve like this it is not good as it shows no improvement in flow rate during the repressurisation, and we know the initial rate was not good.
We would hope for an upward squiggle above the expected curve, showing that a condition in the reservoir had improved resulting in greater flow. 88e will have a predicted curve based on all of the known factors at shut in, so will be gaining knowledge every hour. For example a faster than expected rise following the same curve pattern reveals the fracture channel volume is lower than expected and could be due to proppant embedment allowing the cracks to close.( Less volume to fill will fill faster)
There has been plenty of info posted on imbibition to consider, which will enhance flow, but my concerns are more focused on the factors P Basinski high lighted as risks
http://88ewiki.wikidot.com/88e-long-term-investor-presentation-9th-sept-201688E Long Term Investors Group- London Presentation 9th Sept 2016 - 88e Wiki
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