My uneducated take on today’s announcement.
As at 0530 26th June (AK time), the flowback rate was averaging 30 barrels of water per day on a variable choke setting (currently 36/64”). Wellhead pressure has been managed lower to 32psi to reduce back pressure in the system.
The word “Managed” suggests an element of control and is not something that has just happened.
Since the last update, the reduction in nitrogen injection rate to minimise the impact of a perceived downhole choke has not resulted in an increase in the rate of flowback of stimulation fluid or gas.
“Since the last update”... This is the timeframe this statement represents.. last update 22nd June 2018. “Has not resulted”... What exactly was the expectation at this point in time?
During this period there has been no meaningful change to the composition of the returned gas and fluid. Flowback is considered to be gas and 100% low salinity stimulation fluid, which is not considered representative of the content of the reservoir. It is expected that, if contact with the reservoir is achieved, the salinity of the returned fluid will increase by an order of magnitude. This has not occurred to date.
To date the process has NOT made contact with the reservoir. Does it mean we will or won’t achieve contact with the Reservoir? It is simply stating “this has not occurred to date”. What was the COS again, oh yes 50:50.
Hydrocarbon gas content continues to be predominantly methane (90%) with some heavier elements up to trace C6+. The percentage of hydrocarbon gas in the flowback gas increased from 5% to between 11 and 13% when the nitrogen injection rate was reduced, suggesting that a positive impact on the downhole choke has been made.
Flowback gas increased from 5% to between 11 and 13%.....
Suggesting that a positive impact on the downhole choke has been made.
Cannot read anything negative into these statements.
Total clean up fluid returned (net of diesel for freeze protection and any other fluids introduced as part of the current operation) since commencement of flowback on 12th June 2018 is 1,264 barrels interpreted as 100% stimulation fluid. Total fluid returned during the entire Icewine#2 flowback operation, including last year, is now 6,797 barrels or 24.4% of the frac fluid injected vs a target percentage return of at least 30%.
The “Guide” of at least 30% hasn’t changed although the wording “target percentage return of at least 30%” leaves this open to interpretation. If it eventuates at 35% or 40% or 45% is that not what the Company were originally saying (without saying it!) ? At least is a starting point.
The early results from the flowback were within the range of expectations; however, given the reduction in rate of returned fluid, despite the optimised lift settings, the timeline and forward plan to achieve the return of 30% of injected fluid is being re-assessed.
Yes, it’s taking longer than originally anticipated but the early results from flowback were within the range of expectations. Okay fella’s were going to have to review our timelines, it’s going to take longer than we thought.
88E Managing Director, Dave Wall, commented: “The HRZ play remains in its infancy and shows great promise; however, we do not know all the answers at this stage.
“We do not know all the answers at this stage”
Seems a reasonable statement as this is a new process therefore I guess a lot of “on the job” learning is taking place and how the process is tweaked along the way given the data to date. If we had all the answers the COS would be 100% and the SP would be A$5.00 +
The Joint Venture remain confident that the reservoir quality and geomechanical properties of the HRZ indicate that it has the requisite ingredients to attract a farm-in partner.
Again, nothing negative in this statement fo me.
Am I saying we are going to succeed with IW#2, No. Am I saying it will fail, No. I have just tried to understand what is being reported by the Company and how consistent it is with previous announcements. The whole process is fluid. The next announcement could confirm we have achieved contact with the reservoir, it may not. What I take from today’s announcement is that we were hoping for an increased rate of flowback. We have not achieved contact with the reservoir. It does not say we “will” not achieve contact with the reservoir nor does it say we will. The percentage of hydrocarbon gas in the flowback Gas has increased from 5% to 11 to 13% suggesting that a positive impact on the downhole choke has been made. The guide of at least 30% clean up fluid returned is still in play as we have only reached a figure of 24.4%. The process is continuing but it is going to take longer than originally thought. We do not know all of the answers but we are working at it.
COS remains at 50:50 for me.
Good Luck All
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