Well, this is an interesting thread to say the least.
The shine has well and truly come off BRU in recent months, and sadly, it deserved it.
That being said, I am actually hopeful that all the delays, slow going and tight lipped announcements is because ROC is involved. To me it seems logical that ROC would want to be having a say in everything that is going to done going forward, I think most feel that there have been plenty of mistakes by all stakeholders to varying degrees (shareholders excluded). ROC will surely be resetting the whole operation, which it would seem means almost starting from scratch.
I am not so worried about the current production rates, BRU is still going to make a little coin while BRU/ROC get things in order (at a guess, we are clearing perhaps $1m a month, so enough to pay for admin and a bit of the operations). Of course I want it higher, but hopefully, as has been discussed already, once U4 is re-drilled, pump installed, U5 pump install, U FW on production, we should be looking at much healthy cashflows.
As for the rig delays etc etc. Other than drilling Ungani W, ROC would not really be in a hurry to do so, as even a new discovery won't have an immediate impact on cashflow. Hence, since the signing of the deal, the J/V seems to be solely focused on production (and ensuring that going forward, it will be reliable).
While I know many are frustrated, U4 was partially affected by the big wet, and while I for one am angry as hell that the drilling was not done early, when it clearly could have been, what's done is done.
My guess is the best we will see for this year is drilling U4, pumps in U4 and U5, perhaps U FW? Drill Ungani West and Kurrajong. Then, if they are bringing in the big rig, may as well use it to drill Yakka & its deeps and Rafael, as who knows whether anyone else is actually going to need the big rig?
Although if Karrajong is a success, the whole drilling program could change, as nearby targets will open up with, I am guessing here, fairly decent chances of success. Then... who knows, perhaps two rigs might be justifiable.
With hindsight of course, perhaps BRU could have included in the farmin that BRU drill Kurrajong on a 100% basis, with hefty claw back rights for ROC etc. Too late of course. hmph.
CEO - Ungani North, it there was anything positive, I am sure they would have announced something. My guess is its on the backburner, although, as others have touched on, there must be a way (donkey) of really testing the bugger.
As for Eric, until Rafael and Yakka are drilled he will be at the helm. After holding for, hmm.. 10 1/2 years now, its going to be really interesting to see how he handles stepping down for good. I sincerely hope he can do it with no hard feelings and bring in the sort of person who's skill set is running a business profitably while allowing exploration to be undertaken in a measured way. As some have mentioned, the Laurel Gas play, Yulleroo and the Goldwyer shale are very long term plays. If BRU and its shareholders want to be able to profit from their eventual development, we need a sustainable and growing business.
Mitsubishi is not going anywhere, Andrew Forrest is continuing to take up more acreage (I have verbal confirmation of that, but... no docs yet). Now we have ROC/Fosun and now they have their toe in the Canning, they are going nowhere. A decade ago, BRU was the canning, now.... well, we are still here, but we are the minnow.
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