I thought I had better bight the bullet and publish the latest version of the model.
I have posted it on this thread to assist readers to find previous versions.
This draft document does not purport to give investment advice. It has been prepared to act only as a framework for discussion and comment and contains a significant number of assumptions and estimated values which should be checked by the user. Wherever possible hyperlinks are provided to source documents.
For new readers it contains many assumptions and best guesses and items like the Risk Register and Affinity Diagram are constantly changing and may be out of date.
Changes in the calculated value of shares Etc. could trend downward particularly if this version of the document has used different estimates of key parameters so please don't plot them..
Rev 66 for instance only has 2 areas selected...
A question was raised on the choice of a nominal 48 month well life and this is my present guess of the weighted average across the board commercial life of all wells and this will inevitably vary from sub basin to sub basin.
Put simply there is a point that the earnings from the well do not justify the OPEX and cost of workover/s Etc.
As we proceed with further exploratory work, results a single chip/core hole when looked at in relation to the huge area of the tenement IMO should not justify a significant change either way in shareholder sentiment.
I am basically a buy & hold investor because I am honestly not smart enough to play Russian Roulette with a random series of "Falling Knives".
Successive iterations of the model come up with robust numbers that IMO, even with a worst case set of parameters appear to indicate a really attractive reward/risk proposition.
SS001_Pages_1-7.pdf
