Ann: Operations Update, page-373

pretty spot on with the thinking cone... as a new investor, this is basically 2 roulette rolls for the price of 1/2 a game... let's hope it's black black black...

the backstop (for me anyway) is:
1. MinRes JV in carnarvon - i see this as a big sleeper. Planning to drill in 2022 - difference in this basin vs canning is the many outlets to market, thinking WPL Pluto, and various mines in the region who might need to tap the resource.
2. Yulleroo gas - i get all the constraints around commercialising this but this is a proven resource. I can see this being farmed out / sold at some point in the future. Wouldn't surprise me if something is already in the works now for a 2022/post rafa/cj drill
3. everything else such as canning acreage, all the woke CC/battmin projects etc are just optionality (and personally i'd value those pretty small)

As you said though, the SP floor is going to be interesting if both rafa and cj are dusters. I'd argue absolute backstops cash (so say $35m), 7/8c ish... plus a small premium re the above 1. and 2.