Ann: Operations Update, page-182

Anyone see a problem with the following reasoning?

There are 4 possible results for Rafa pre flow testing:
1. Unambiguously bad
2 Ambiguously bad
3 Ambiguously good
4 Unambiguously good

The rig must have had time to reach TD by now so one of these must be current.

If Eric thought he had an unambiguous result, he would have announced it as he is obliged to.

In Eric’s mind, after the embarrassment of his mistaken confidence about the CJ result, there would be no such thing as a unambiguously good result for Rafa pre flow testing so there could not be an announcement of an unambiguously good result at this stage.

Also, for reasons of recent experience, Eric would be reluctant to announce an ambiguous result when he does not have to.

Therefore, the only result ruled out by the lack of an announcement is the unambiguously bad possibility.

Given the elimination of this (unambiguously bad) possibility, the probability of eventually getting a good result has improved.