Just lightening the mood a little
@boysy1 The reality is that MEL needs funding and that it will likely be either debt or a CR. (I don't think we are at the point of selling off parts yet)
If it is debt it will come with multiple conditions precedent prior to the financing becoming unconditional and MEL cannot announce it until then. One such condition would have been that the other JV participants are funded and VEN only achieved that last week.
I worked in corporate finance for years and any finance package from the start took a minimum 90-120 days to complete. A funding package needs to be put together and presented to multiple financiers. Then a month negotiating with each financier on security, terms and conditions and arrive at a short list to take to the board. Once approved at a board level it will go back to the financiers credit committee which often triggers another round of questions prior to getting approved, often with conditions precedent still attached.
The MEL still needs time to unwind the current KBC/Glennons facility which is complicated by the joint security. I am also guessing that if MEL move to finance out of KBC, KBC may actually push back against it and decide to fund MEL after all.
I'm not saying that MEL won't need to raise capital, if they can't get finance they will need to, just that finance at this level will take months to be unconditional.
So we all know where MEL currently is and that they need funds through either debt, equity or a combination of the two. What I don't know, and would be really interested to hear, is what do others think MEL will be worth after O2 and O3 are drilled. I realise it is a how long is a piece of string question but isn't it the real question? If there is a CR incoming I would really like to know whether it is worth participating.
We are all starved of the detail to work up a decent cashflow but for example
@Autosime suggested on the VEN thread that the JV is worth $100m+. If that's a realistic number than MEL @ $7.5m MC plus a CR for $5m looks to be a decent investment.
On my own rough numbers, assuming Vali continues at 1.5mmscf/d and the JV can achieve an average across O1-3 of 4mmscf/d MEL could around $2m/year cashflow positive (pre any additional exploration or development costs) On those numbers, plus development upside maybe MEL will be worth $25m.
I know you running cashflows
@boysy1 I would be interested in what sort of value you are seeing for MEL post O 2/3.
(20min delay)