"That's the worst-case scenario of course but it is just as...

"That's the worst-case scenario of course but it is just as likely as the best case scenario that you have assumed."

No it isn't. Your scenario is not a scenario at all. The scenario I have "assumed" is the scenario we have - and yes it is the best case scenario (provided it pans out).

Your argument over the relative merits of the upper vs the lower Patchawarra perforations is completely fallacious, as there was never any production flow testing from either. This from the Vali Operations Update of 28/03/2023:


That appraisal work for Vali-2 was never carried out due to subsequent problems. This from the later Vali Operations Update of 27/04/2023:


To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, you produce from the well you have, not the well you might want, or believe you had at an earlier time.

The lower Patchawarra perforations are producing too much water for viable for gas production, and this was the case from the start. Simple. Sure, we can speculate as to what the production would be from these perforations if the water wasn't there, but is there. We could equally speculate what the production might be if there was more gas, higher pressure, more permeable shale. But that is not the well we have.

The good news is that, as only the lower perforations seem to be producing excessive amounts of water, everything above remains available for production, including the Toolachee. This is the best case scenario we could have wished for.

All IMO.