at the rate they have disposed of assets to leave only a few hundred mill in NTA?
They need to erase the LTV covenant clauses,,,very possible that if they need to sell further asset at a dicount, that the gearing would worsen,,,
They need to remove the forced selling, its cancerous.
The upside, is that if, when, they get to the other side of this near term refinance, and dont have any of their hands forced, asset re-inlfation will return NTA. (assuming US prop values climb out of rec.)
INT cover still doing the job.
But right now, to answer your question,,,what do you think the market will do, the month leading into the latest refinance extension period?
31c NTA with troubles, the market has to worry itself, 10c is now a ceiling.
Who will push this to anything near NTA, with refinance risks?
It certainly wont go over NTA even with them covered.
So, best case, it refinances OK, and it has the potential to maybe half NTA? It wont return to a div policy in the near future, so earnings while good, are doing most of their task on INTC, and would say the rest to other debts. Odds are the banks will want in any negotiating, that debt is reduced over the next x years with ITC margin to get gearing down.
gearing disgusting.
I think it is going lower, and i'd be thinking more like 5-6c in that rout before the refinance date.
Is a 10c ceiling fair with refinance risks?
Factor in, that forced selling, on worst case scenario, will further erode NTA.
I think that 5-6c is where it needs to be valued until that cancer is once and for all, removed.
Post that, then yes, back to 10c, but not any higher unless they can return to a div policy.
8.5c, not for mine.
And if you pick up at 5-6, pre refinance ou still carry that risk.
I'm out of the sector atm,,but would prefer BJT, ie AJA.
MDT Price at posting:
9.8¢ Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Not Held
