OPT (ASX) Ann: Opthea announces establishment of ATM Equity Program

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03/02/22

12:43

Post #: 59328064
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Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

Reg the ATM:

A targeted deal size of $75 MN / A$105 MN at current share price equals 11,5 MN ADRs / 92 MN ordinary shares to be issued until P3 topline data at very YE2023.

This equals to 25.000 ADRs (the corresponding of 200.000 ordinary shares) to be issued every trading day. Every SINGLE trading day. For the next 23 months.

This compared to an average daily trading volume of 10.000 ADRs on Nasdaq or 600.000 ordinary shares in Sydney.

The thing is, at current share price and even more so when share price are rising, the ATM means less dilution. Smart.

But given the lack of significant newsflow until September 2022 (when hopefully full recruitment is communicated) the mere size of the daily issuance could impede any upward trend for OPT stock. And then, once the share price starts dropping (for whatever reason) the idea of an ATM risks becoming pretty value destroying as the dilution to make the targeted final $75 MN becomes larger and larger.

And I doubt OPT could make it all the way through YE2023 with significantly less additional cash needs than those communicated with the CR. And the market knows so.

@All: Is this a too skeptical view?
@Hotfire: What was your experience on this "volume issue" with the BRN ATM you mentioned?

Expand

BRN has been pumping out regular updates & news flow, which attract new money into the stock.

Whereas OPT is in hibernation

Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

Reg the ATM:

A targeted deal size of $75 MN / A$105 MN at current share price equals 11,5 MN ADRs / 92 MN ordinary shares to be issued until P3 topline data at very YE2023.

This equals to 25.000 ADRs (the corresponding of 200.000 ordinary shares) to be issued every trading day. Every SINGLE trading day. For the next 23 months.

This compared to an average daily trading volume of 10.000 ADRs on Nasdaq or 600.000 ordinary shares in Sydney.

The thing is, at current share price and even more so when share price are rising, the ATM means less dilution. Smart.

But given the lack of significant newsflow until September 2022 (when hopefully full recruitment is communicated) the mere size of the daily issuance could impede any upward trend for OPT stock. And then, once the share price starts dropping (for whatever reason) the idea of an ATM risks becoming pretty value destroying as the dilution to make the targeted final $75 MN becomes larger and larger.

And I doubt OPT could make it all the way through YE2023 with significantly less additional cash needs than those communicated with the CR. And the market knows so.

@All: Is this a too skeptical view?
@Hotfire: What was your experience on this "volume issue" with the BRN ATM you mentioned?

Expand

OPT Price at posting: $1.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 61.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $750.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
61.0¢	61.3¢	57.5¢	$1.457M	2.436M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	8599	63.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
58.0¢	8130	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	16664	0.630
2	18915	0.625
3	19209	0.620
4	72125	0.600
1	17858	0.595

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.580	8130	1
0.595	3899	8
0.610	84003	3
0.615	44958	5
0.620	149012	7

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