The biggest problem is the binary nature of either going to the...

The biggest problem is the binary nature of either going to the moon or zero.

Behind that is the challenge of sensibly allocating and risking more of my capital on something that could go to zero. Is there a way to limit risk to 50% of my capital while still capturing a significant portion of the potential rewards? Game theory suggests focusing on expectations and strategic positioning rather than simply holding through to the outcome.

Four weeks ago, I was very confident in my choices, with an overall average in the low 40s. I had been range trading, selling during spikes and buying back in the 60s. The share price was in the 60s, and my thinking was that a capital raise (CR) or partnership dilution could take it back to the low 50s or high 40s, so I thought I was covered unless something major went wrong with the trials. Then reality hit: first, I was grumpy about the insider selling back to the high 40s and then surprised by the massive size of the CR itself.

They have enough money to get to Q4 2024, and I thought they just needed six months more runway, which would never come close to $220M. A $90M CR makes sense; a $220M CR doesn't.

Never going broke taking profits. The worst-case scenario is that OPT stagnates in 2024, falls into the low 20s in 2025, and stays there towards P3. In such a situation, I would be faced with either taking a loss or letting it ride. That would be ugly, as it would also indicate something not quite right with the trials.

As always grain salt take with my comments.