Ann: Opthea Reports Half Year Results and Business Updates, page-9

Yes and no for the binary outcome.

IMHO, there is a 2nd-prize possibility of a clinically significant outcome in treatment subgroups...enough to provide even a small amount of residual value in a license or acquisition of the molecule, maybe to Regeneron.

3rd prize: zero; perhaps, at best, an 85–90% loss on open like PER. In which case I would be questioning the foundational science of VEGF-C and the P2b study.

I recommended that everyone have a written plan of what to do if there is a mixed message - secondary outcome hit) as it will be very difficult to evaluate in the short-term frenzy after the trading halt is lifted. While I fully expect a hit and success—with the only question being how many letters there will be—a massive sell-down will occur if the topline fails (e.g., 2 letters).

However, if hypothetically if only Occult or PCV is a hit, it would be wise to have a spreadsheet ready to reprice the stock.Oddly, my spreadsheet ends up with fact that any clinically significant success in any subgroup leading to commercial drug means the value of OPT is above $1, even after factoring in an AUD$1B payback of the DFA.

Can anyone see a pathway for a commercial drug for any subgroup that results in OPT not being worth at least 90cents?