I'm trying to organize my own thinking around what you're suggesting—that there exists a simple probability tree, pointing towards a pivotal moment in 2025 with a clear yes/no switch. This binary outcome branches into either "Winner-$7.20" or "Loser-Zero." There's no third branch that says "Restricted use, 32cents." While I have a foundational biomedical understanding of what the drug aims to achieve, I must admit that I'm not fully equipped to thoroughly assess the likelihood of its success. However, based on the promising results from Phase II, I will hold what I have and see what unfolds.
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