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18:02
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Originally posted by Burgerbuns:
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Hypothetically, failure to commercialise this candidate drug post phase III trials would spell absolute disaster. I think you're looking at this 'hypothetical' - yet not impossible scenario the wrong way. A 50% loss isn't just a 50% loss. There's also opportunity cost. Fancy having a decent investment in OPT for years only for it to fail? In the meantime, there's the possibility that you might've invested elsewhere in an already profitable company and had a change of fortune. How would you measure that? What would the real loss be?hypothetical question, here is my answer...It's all or nothing . Or, seeing as I'm using theatre as an analogy, maybe this is a more appropriate response; It's an Academy Award...or a Golden Raspberry .
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I'm trying to organize my own thinking around what you're suggesting—that there exists a simple probability tree, pointing towards a pivotal moment in 2025 with a clear yes/no switch. This binary outcome branches into either "Winner-$7.20" or "Loser-Zero." There's no third branch that says "Restricted use, 32cents." While I have a foundational biomedical understanding of what the drug aims to achieve, I must admit that I'm not fully equipped to thoroughly assess the likelihood of its success. However, based on the promising results from Phase II, I will hold what I have and see what unfolds.
(20min delay)
