Valuation: Reduce TP to A$2.50; off Conviction List, reiterate Buy
We continue to believe that OPT-302 is under-valued and remain positive on the longer-term investment view, but with Ph3 studies now underway, we expect few incremental catalysts ahead of top-line data in 2023, and hence remove from ANZ Conviction List.
Since we added OPT to the Conviction List on 27 Aug 2019, the stock is down 52% vs. S&P/ASX 200 up 15%, with the under performance in our view largely reflecting a lack of clinical catalysts and a dilutive secondary listing during this period.
We update our forecasts to reflect: 1) marking-to-market of latest comparator drug revenues (Luncentis, Eylea and our assumption of Avastin for retinal disease indications); 2) modest clinical delays vs. our previous expectations (c.6 months); and 3) a shallower adoption profile, primarily to reflect competitor progress (now assuming 30% of implied biosimilar adoption at peak, from 50% prior).
In doing so, we reduce risk-adjusted peak sales from US$2.3bn to US$1.5bn in 2030E (our probability of success remains unchanged at 55% in wAMD, 20% in DME).
These changes to our forecasts reduce our 12-month TP to A$2.50 (from A$4.70), still based 70% on our DCF valuation of A$2.30 (from A$4.70), and 30% from our M&A valuation of A$2.90 (from A$4.70; calculated by applying a multiple of 2x to risk-adjusted peak sales, multiple unchanged).
Key risks: Replicability of positive data in larger Ph3 studies; pipeline setback; regulatory approval; potential changes in competitive dynamic; pricing, reimbursement and market access.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- OPT
- Ann: Opthea's OPT-302 Granted Fast-Track for wet AMD
Ann: Opthea's OPT-302 Granted Fast-Track for wet AMD, page-57
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 44 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add OPT (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
38.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $467.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
38.0¢ | 39.0¢ | 37.5¢ | $176.6K | 463.9K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 121324 | 38.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
39.0¢ | 90033 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 121324 | 0.380 |
8 | 206689 | 0.375 |
15 | 336846 | 0.370 |
4 | 11693 | 0.365 |
7 | 278244 | 0.360 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.390 | 90033 | 3 |
0.395 | 28147 | 2 |
0.400 | 140733 | 2 |
0.405 | 30000 | 1 |
0.410 | 98513 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
OPT (ASX) Chart |