OPT (ASX) Ann: Opthea's OPT-302 Granted Fast-Track for wet AMD

Originally posted by ezirida: ↑

Patients are being recruited and treated so imho the game is underway but of course in the area of biotech it can be a long winding road

I don't know of any specific catalysts but I assume once full patient recruitment is achieved that would be one milestone at least

This is one of those stocks where one just has to either pony up in the face of persistant negative SP action and the lack of news flow from the company, or, walk away and just find somewhere else to park funds !

That's biotech in a nutshell.. I based my investment decision on phase 2 results and safety and there is nothing much more to add..

Ageing populations means that effective optical treatments should have a growing market.. on a global scale so I think the risk reward equation on this is about right..

Just because the share price is suppressed has nothing to do with the trial but more to with time.. The market simply will not wait, it has been proven many times over

I am prepared to wait longer than the market and I have continued to chip away at these lower levels so I'm holding enough in my super now to make a difference.

GLTAH

Expand

I agree and I was not expecting the full value until finalization Ph3 trial. However I was expecting more support for the SP.

I bought small parcel at $3:00 last year post-US IPO and it was a mistake. I was sucked in by the SP manipulation of Regal & BOA

I managed to average down to $1.30/ share which I thought a good entry price but now I acknowledge the sub $1 is a possibility according @primaus72 and the recent Goldman's valuation of $2.50 from $4.70.

Originally posted by Hotfire: ↑

Valuation: Reduce TP to A$2.50; off Conviction List, reiterate Buy
We continue to believe that OPT-302 is under-valued and remain positive on the longer-term investment view, but with Ph3 studies now underway, we expect few incremental catalysts ahead of top-line data in 2023, and hence remove from ANZ Conviction List.

Since we added OPT to the Conviction List on 27 Aug 2019, the stock is down 52% vs. S&P/ASX 200 up 15%, with the under performance in our view largely reflecting a lack of clinical catalysts and a dilutive secondary listing during this period.

We update our forecasts to reflect: 1) marking-to-market of latest comparator drug revenues (Luncentis, Eylea and our assumption of Avastin for retinal disease indications); 2) modest clinical delays vs. our previous expectations (c.6 months); and 3) a shallower adoption profile, primarily to reflect competitor progress (now assuming 30% of implied biosimilar adoption at peak, from 50% prior).

In doing so, we reduce risk-adjusted peak sales from US$2.3bn to US$1.5bn in 2030E (our probability of success remains unchanged at 55% in wAMD, 20% in DME).

These changes to our forecasts reduce our 12-month TP to A$2.50 (from A$4.70), still based 70% on our DCF valuation of A$2.30 (from A$4.70), and 30% from our M&A valuation of A$2.90 (from A$4.70; calculated by applying a multiple of 2x to risk-adjusted peak sales, multiple unchanged).
Key risks: Replicability of positive data in larger Ph3 studies; pipeline setback; regulatory approval; potential changes in competitive dynamic; pricing, reimbursement and market access.

Expand

Yes, you are correct. The previous Goldman's valuation that got me interested in OPT is below:

No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	121324	38.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

121324

38.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
39.0¢	90033	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

39.0¢

90033

No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	121324	0.380
8	206689	0.375
15	336846	0.370
4	11693	0.365
7	278244	0.360

No.

Vol.

Price($)

121324

0.380

206689

0.375

336846

0.370

11693

0.365

278244

0.360

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.390	90033	3
0.395	28147	2
0.400	140733	2
0.405	30000	1
0.410	98513	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.390

90033

0.395

28147

0.400

140733

0.405

30000

0.410

98513

(20min delay)
Last 38.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $467.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
38.0¢	39.0¢	37.5¢	$176.6K	463.9K

Ann: Opthea's OPT-302 Granted Fast-Track for wet AMD, page-58

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Ann: Opthea's OPT-302 Granted Fast-Track for wet AMD, page-58

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