GT1 green technology metals limited

100% agree that companies will sometimes trade at discounts to...

  1. 3,844 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 7743
    100% agree that companies will sometimes trade at discounts to NPV, particularly early stage NPV estimates.

    A company might use 8% discount rates in the NPV and the market considers given the risk profile, it expects a 10% or higher expected rate of return. This may cause the MC to be below a single project company NPV.

    An unfortunate tendency exists for there to be an element of optimism within project estimates. Sometimes this optimism is large to excessively large. The market response is frequently to apply risk discounts to the project causing MC's below NPV.

    If the project is yet to be funded (which is almost always the case for juniors), the extent of any dilution that will occur in trying to raise the capital to implement the project is unknown. If you had a $200m NPV but existing shareholders would only own half the project after CR dilution then its really a $100m NPV project in the context of existing shareholders.

    All of these mean that expecting the share price to trade at or above project NPV's is not sensible, but the adjustment isn't however to deduct capex from the NPV. Additionally, this is only one of 3 projects that GT1 is attempting to implement. Additionally this NPV doesn't include optionality around extended use of the DMS plant through the discovery of nearby deposits or the acquisition of deposits that others discover nearby. If the share price were to return to even 50% of the NPV (let alone 50% of the NPV plus equity capital necessary to implement the project), the share price will need to rally a lot!!

    A very significant discount is clearly currently still appropriate but the projected life of mine net profit after tax is US$483m with this figure including a negative adjustment for establishment capex and sustaining capex. Across 2027 to 2032 this PEA has EBITDA averaging around C$150m/year.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6829/6829608-1025f9d8317904d2a93819efc8589825.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6829/6829612-8d5e0140ccb68de4caf292dc5a8179f3.jpg

    Last edited by WhatsTheTip: 22/02/25
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)
Last
3.0¢
Change
0.000(0.00%)
Mkt cap ! $14.25M
Open High Low Value Volume
3.0¢ 3.2¢ 2.9¢ $56.62K 1.875M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 106181 3.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
3.1¢ 54439 1
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
GT1 (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.