That the stock is trading at a level so below this approach, irrespective of how indicative, conditional or otherwise qualified the approach is, surprises me.
This company is now clearly in play, with a lame-duck board having insufficient credibility to defend against takeover bids.
So I put the odds of there being no further bidding (from either Lone Star or another interloper) as low, say <15%. In which case the share price would ease back to $2.00 (it wouldn't fall to previous lows purely because of today's announcement)
And then I think there's a 50% chance a 10% higher bid, so $2.80, emerges.
Also a 30% chance that a bid of $3.00 materialises, especially if an additional acquirer emerges.
Of course, there is an outside chance (5% odds) that a bidding war erupts which could see a $3.20 or higher share price.
Throw all that into a weighted average algorithm and you get a probability-weighted return in excess of 20%:
Asymmetric investment return opportunity.
The merger-arb boys will be all over it.
.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ORA
- Ann: ORA - Receipt and Rejection of NBIO from Lone Star
Ann: ORA - Receipt and Rejection of NBIO from Lone Star, page-25
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 3 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ORA (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$2.60 |
Change
0.020(0.78%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.493B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.63 | $2.63 | $2.56 | $13.40M | 5.169M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4768 | $2.59 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.61 | 324984 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4768 | 2.590 |
2 | 32002 | 2.580 |
5 | 80304 | 2.570 |
1 | 6930 | 2.560 |
1 | 6930 | 2.550 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.610 | 324984 | 1 |
2.620 | 37466 | 5 |
2.630 | 33525 | 3 |
2.640 | 13034 | 3 |
2.650 | 20462 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ORA (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
LGP
LITTLE GREEN PHARMA LTD
Paul Long, Chief Executive Officer
Paul Long
Chief Executive Officer
SPONSORED BY The Market Online