That the stock is trading at a level so below this approach, irrespective of how indicative, conditional or otherwise qualified the approach is, surprises me.
This company is now clearly in play, with a lame-duck board having insufficient credibility to defend against takeover bids.
So I put the odds of there being no further bidding (from either Lone Star or another interloper) as low, say <15%. In which case the share price would ease back to $2.00 (it wouldn't fall to previous lows purely because of today's announcement)
And then I think there's a 50% chance a 10% higher bid, so $2.80, emerges.
Also a 30% chance that a bid of $3.00 materialises, especially if an additional acquirer emerges.
Of course, there is an outside chance (5% odds) that a bidding war erupts which could see a $3.20 or higher share price.
Throw all that into a weighted average algorithm and you get a probability-weighted return in excess of 20%:
Asymmetric investment return opportunity.
The merger-arb boys will be all over it.
.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: ORA - Receipt and Rejection of NBIO from Lone Star
That the stock is trading at a level so below this approach,...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 3 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ORA (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$2.67 |
Change
0.030(1.14%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.587B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.63 | $2.68 | $2.60 | $9.519M | 3.584M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 6960 | $2.64 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.68 | 36378 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2400 | 2.630 |
1 | 100 | 2.620 |
1 | 3518 | 2.600 |
2 | 10756 | 2.580 |
3 | 64301 | 2.570 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.690 | 7000 | 3 |
2.700 | 7650 | 3 |
2.710 | 270 | 1 |
2.720 | 45920 | 6 |
2.730 | 7000 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ORA (ASX) Chart |