can someone please explain to me why this stock trades where it...

can someone please explain to me why this stock trades where it does. it has massively lagged the rally in larger coal names (WHC, NHC, CRN) as well as dodgy levered things like TER. This is a wildly misunderstood business. the domestic business is much more 'utility like' than a typical thermal business, you can see that in the PnL which didn't change much during COVID despite seaborne thermal prices getting obliterated. the domestic biz pumps out a reliable 35mm EBITDA (average), year in, year out, and with ample reserves should be valued much higher than a typical seaborne coal business. say 4-5x EV/EBITDA?

meanwhile at current spot or even much less, the proportionate EBITDA from the coking coal biz is somewhere around $130-200mm (in AUD, proportionate basis, ref $350/t-$450/t benchmark met prices). meanwhile the EV for the entire entity today is just $190mm. so you pay maybe 1x EV/EBITDA for the export business, and get the entire domestic business, AND all the optionality on Crown Mountain, for free.

people will say lawsuit risk but frankly with coal prices where they are there is no issue with the lawsuit. let them lose it and pay it, if it removes the overhang surely this rerates? I get to a $1.75 stock target and I'm only giving 1H'22 credit (ie, what is already in the bank basically) for super normal export earnings. realistically they could earn half their market cap in cash in the next six months, again, with zero debt...

i feel like im missing something fundamental. please correct me if so.