So what really happened on Fridays wipeout on Wall St - don't anyone truly knows other than the bleeding obvious of pretty much everything went down.
Does this chart concern you (it does me but I've haven't "reacted" - yet)
Yes Ag is also an industrial metal and a big part of the "electrification of everything" so it would react to negatively to a recession. But like gold, it is somewhat of an inflation hedge. If both Au & AG are falling (which they did on Friday's US session - AG much more than Au) then its usually a sign of the market expecting lower inflation (which it is not as tariffs are inflationary). It could be that the spike in DXY (the broad trade weighted USD index against a basket of major currencies) sent Au/Ag prices down - common relationship of USD up and commodities down ... but Trump wants a lower US$ (I think he'll get that but probably not the way he wanted it).
But what explains the "Extreme" (if you look at the chart in relative terms) move up in the GSE from ~90 to >100 in the last couple of weeks? Something seems wrong to me.
Now consider the next metal - copper - good old Dr. Copper - also key economic indicator (copper down indicates recession coming) and absolute key metal in the "electrification of everything" thematic. This warrants 2 charts ... 1st being the long term 10 year chart
pretty clear here the "Covid Crash" in 2020 and then the stimulus and the bull market in stocks (the red S&P line). But dutring this stimulus the price of Gold rose faster than the price of copper (makes sense with all that money printing going on).and peaks around 0.26 ish. After that is begins to reverse until the recent rally where copper has increase in price faster - until Trump's tariffs war laid waste to all last week. The "recession" is on if you look at 2020.
This is just a ratio though - divide copper price per ounce by the gold price per ounce. The meaning is simple though.
Higher ratio says that
copper is relatively more expensive than gold, potentially
indicating increased industrial demand and a positive outlook for economic growth. Conversely a lower ratio (gold more expensive) signals weaker economic outlook (recession) or maybe a shift to "risk off" investor sentiment and capital being directed to safe-haven assets like gold. That may explain the sharp drop in the blue line.
It's clearer in the shorter term chart:
If the longer term chart is a predictor ... then there are lower prices coming, but relatively more so in copper, then silver then gold (I think once the USD corrects).
This is an economic indicator not a share price prediction.
(20min delay)