Hmmm...how ever lets have a look at some of the facts in...

Hmmm...how ever lets have a look at some of the facts in here...

Origin Energy (ORG) reported a first-half FY21 underlying net profit of $224m, 6% below the same period last year.

An unfranked interim dividend of 12.5cps.

The contribution from Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) was above everybodys estimation that I have read thus far...happy to be corrected.

Origin continues to offer a greater than 7% free cash flow yield, cost of equity 6.9%, cost of debt 6.0%.....hence we got the div we did which I thought was going to be circa .08 to .10 so im happy to get $100k in divs.....

Energy Markets EBITDA declining 12% in the half, the financials highlighted the impact lower electricity prices are having on Origin, given the lag effect of wholesale prices flowing through the hedge book, guidance implies Energy Markets EBITDA to decline a further 21–43% in the current half setting a base for FY22 earnings...."PSI IN THIS FORUM QUOTED THAT BEFORE RESULTS AND HE WAS SPOT ON"...and I forgot all about that...I should've realised all that before buying when I did....

APLNG has represented a drag on the business in the past with pressure on management to consider selling because the Utilities business was not seeing full value. The situation has reversed now, with APLNG expected to distribute $575- $675m to Origin this year offsetting headwinds in Energy Markets.
APLNG distributions represent 7-8% of the market cap alone. Pricing–Origin echoed AGL’s recent comments about wholesale electricity prices indicating that current prices are not only below the cost of new build firm generation but also leave limited margins for existing assets.

Management believes that sustained prices will lead to a supply response, noting that it could be an unplanned outage given the excess wear on ageing coal assets. In the meantime, Eraring is being operated at minimum generation with one unit taken offline.

The recovery in benchmark oil and LNG prices is likely to result in improving performance and higher distributions from APLNG.
However, lower wholesale electricity prices will likely be a drag on contribution from the Energy Markets business.

Below is an estimate URL link from Gov and industry number crunches...Texas in the last week is proving that the market can be disrupted in so many ways and forms that we can not force...unless you have a crystal ball...and if you do... I WANT ONE...

https://arena.gov.au/assets/2017/02/CSIRO-Electricity-market-analysis-for-IGEG.pdf

Natural gas at time of writing for spot at 8:19 pm Gold Coast time is @ $3.090 without disruption for forward contracts.....

What I take as a huge positive is the fact that current pricing ratios are below the cost of building anything new to onramp...so how long do you think this is sustainable...so the conventional power players will benefit with current performing platforms allbeit they have to fix the dam things...

Govs always run with the crowd..because they vote...but the blackouts starts if they do...the current suppliers will be called upon and helped along the way...just like SWM with the media crack down....I see more positives out of all this than I do negatives...we have gone through a perfect storm..and as we all know...storms pass...they are diversifying and that ALL WE NEED TO HEAR...become so competitive that the new entrants and existing discounted players become untenable...and thats only a matter of time....

My opinion and happy to b corrected along the way....
All the best to long term holders...

RDD