There are so many variables! Here are a few scenarios I've...

There are so many variables! Here are a few scenarios I've calculated out to get a sense of the range of possible outcomes:

	Variable	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
1	Scheme implementation date	30 Nov 2023	30 Nov 2023	29 Feb 2024
2	Fully franked dividends paid	$0.165 in Sep 2023	$0.165 in Sep 2023	$0.165 in Sep 2023, $0.20 special dividend upon implementation
3	Interest rate on cash	7.00%	4.60%	4.60%
4	Exchange rate at implementation is AUD$1.00 =	USD$0.70	USD$0.67	USD$0.67
5	Implied present value	$8.35/share	$8.65/share	$8.86/share

Selling now below the "implied present value" is worse than holding on for the proceeds from the scheme implementation, given the variables noted.

These scenarios all make the following assumptions (any or all of which could well be wrong, and will impact the outcome):

• There is no change to the current AUD vs USD mix in the consideration (AUD$5.78 + USD$2.19).
• Proceeds from selling now, or dividends received, are held as cash or some other "safe" vehicle earning an interest rate as noted (accumulated daily, compounded monthly) until implementation date.
• A 0% tax rate applies (e.g. a super fund in pension mode).
• The scheme actually ends up getting implemented (i.e. it is not blocked by ACCC or the failure of some other condition).

Of course, you don't have to trust my calculations (especially since I haven't shared them here for anybody to verify!). Or you may think some of the assumptions I've made are way off base or not applicable to your situation. Maybe the most interesting piece here is the range of variables to consider, more than the actual price per share. YMMV.