Wow, what a beat-up. Classic example of "Buy the rumour, sell the fact." Now all those who bought in in anticipation of a quick buck are stampeding for the exits before licking their wounds. Hard to garner much sympathy.
That's a great result for CTP. 1.1 MMbbls of 2P plus significant upside. You can't really expect to get a much higher recoverable volume from a single well in a tight sandstone reservoir, because the well can only 'see' a certain distance into the reservoir during the EPT.
So if you've only got one well, the rest of the volume MUST go to 2C, because even if volumetrically it's highly likely to be there, there's no direct pressure evidence to prove that you can get it out.
That's the thing about 2C. It can often be converted directly to 2P simply by drilling a well into it and proving the same sort of flow as in Surprise-1.
So this about the best result possible for CTP. The EPT has proven the roughly million barrels recoverable we expected around the wellbore itself, and the rest of the structure has been classified as 2C, which has considerably de-risked the upside.
As an aside - some may remember, I've been saying since 2011 or so that 1 MMbbls was my estimate for the recoverable 2P in Surprise. This certification was 1.1 MM - why bother with official certification when you've got psi81 certification?! :)
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